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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Proc𝔍ess and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by 🌱the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential rele𓂃gation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conversion o𒆙f ch🉐ances.
Home 🐈teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform ✱especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decrease𝕴d over time ♔and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of 🌠all wins are based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 🔯75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctive꧟ly more 𓃲than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than 🐽on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is sig෴nificantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is qu🧸ite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a s🐻lightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly corr🌠elated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance leve🌱l = goal diff🧔erence that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the m🥂ore reliable goals and opp🧸ortunities display the performances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Addit♚ionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the diffꦇerence of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is determined by effects of coin♒cidence with 86% (match day൩) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistic♒ally relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When y🅘ou got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of ef🥂fective goalsco𓂃ring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant d꧃eviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rareꦚ. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With𒊎 the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportun✅ities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and▨ b🎐ecomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically💎, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s s🌜earch for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
🍌Of course we know! But it is𝕴 enough for today, we will let you know another rime.